Any Breyer retirement appears to be at least a year away, barring any sudden health problems, but perhaps the most interesting replacement scenario is probably among the least likely. Suppose those recent, apparently orchestrated, White House leaks to Politico & other publications quite critical of Vice President Harris & her Chief of Staff (unusual at any time, more so this early) indicate that the Biden camp thinks she would be a drag on the ticket in 2024, or lead the Party to defeat herself if Biden doesn’t run. While it would certainly be politically difficult to dump the first black & female VP, nominating Harris to the Supreme Court could be made to look like somewhat of a promotion or career preference, if Harris was agreeable or willing to play the good soldier and go along with the move. Harris might not do that well in the confirmation process, and it might look bad if she was defeated or had to cast a tie-breaking vote for herself, but it’d be good political theatre, even if the odds of it happening are slim - perhaps 5% or less - but let’s see what happens in the next year or two.
It's interesting that you mention this because back in 2012, Tom Goldstein of SCOTUSblog identified Harris as a top SCOTUS pick. After she decided to run for the Senate, it looked like this would never happen. How neat would it be for Tom to be right after all, a decade or so later! Here's his post for anyone who might be interested:
I tend to agree about your assessment of the Supreme Court, even though Republicans have come to dominate the High Court, given their structural advantages in the Senate and Electoral College. The Court really should be reformed (adding four justices, to represent the number of District Courts of Appeal), but it won't happen.
Great write- up. I have always been intrigued by the 18-year term idea, though I know that has issues too (and also will not happen!)
Any Breyer retirement appears to be at least a year away, barring any sudden health problems, but perhaps the most interesting replacement scenario is probably among the least likely. Suppose those recent, apparently orchestrated, White House leaks to Politico & other publications quite critical of Vice President Harris & her Chief of Staff (unusual at any time, more so this early) indicate that the Biden camp thinks she would be a drag on the ticket in 2024, or lead the Party to defeat herself if Biden doesn’t run. While it would certainly be politically difficult to dump the first black & female VP, nominating Harris to the Supreme Court could be made to look like somewhat of a promotion or career preference, if Harris was agreeable or willing to play the good soldier and go along with the move. Harris might not do that well in the confirmation process, and it might look bad if she was defeated or had to cast a tie-breaking vote for herself, but it’d be good political theatre, even if the odds of it happening are slim - perhaps 5% or less - but let’s see what happens in the next year or two.
It's interesting that you mention this because back in 2012, Tom Goldstein of SCOTUSblog identified Harris as a top SCOTUS pick. After she decided to run for the Senate, it looked like this would never happen. How neat would it be for Tom to be right after all, a decade or so later! Here's his post for anyone who might be interested:
https://www.scotusblog.com/2012/02/the-court-in-a-second-obama-term/
I tend to agree about your assessment of the Supreme Court, even though Republicans have come to dominate the High Court, given their structural advantages in the Senate and Electoral College. The Court really should be reformed (adding four justices, to represent the number of District Courts of Appeal), but it won't happen.