Notice And Comment: 2024 Predictions?
Prizes will be awarded to the best prognosticators.
Welcome to Original Jurisdiction, the latest legal publication by me, David Lat. You can learn more about Original Jurisdiction by reading its About page, and you can email me at davidlat@substack.com. This is a reader-supported publication; you can subscribe by clicking here. Thanks!
Happy Friday! I hope your 2024 is off to a great start.
This year won’t be boring, certainly not for lawyers and legal nerds. We have a presidential election coming up—and thanks to the Supreme Court’s role in deciding whether Donald Trump is disqualified under the Fourteenth Amendment, we’re looking at one of the most momentous SCOTUS Terms ever.
The election will also be affected by the four criminal cases that are currently pending against the former (and possibly future) president. It will be fascinating to see how they get resolved—and when, since whether trials (or convictions) arrive before or after November 2024 could have serious implications for the election.
It’s also an interesting time for Biglaw, which seems to be at an inflection point—not unlike the uncertain economy. Are we going to have a “soft landing”—or, better yet, an outright boom, bringing back the glory days of 2021? Or are we headed for recession—including a return to the layoffs, pay freezes or cuts, associate deferrals, firm dissolutions, and other hallmarks of bad times in Biglaw?
In this Notice and Comment (N&C) post, I invite you, my readers, to make your 2024 predictions in the comments. Here are some law-related topics you can tackle:
How will the Supreme Court decide Trump v. Anderson, the former president’s appeal of the Colorado Supreme Court decision that excluded him from the presidential primary ballot in that state?
Will any of the criminal cases against Trump go to trial before November 5, 2024?
If so, will Trump get convicted or acquitted? Or will there be a mistrial?
Will 2024 be good, bad, or something in between for Biglaw?
Will an Am Law 200 firm go under in 2024?
Will there be another associate pay raise?
Will Stanford overtake Yale as the #1 law school?
Which law school will be the site of the next big free-speech controversy?
A year from now, I’ll do a follow-up post in which I’ll highlight some of the best (and maybe some of the worst) predictions. I’ll award prizes for the most successful prognosticators among you, such as free subscriptions to Original Jurisdiction, signed copies of my novel Supreme Ambitions, and some OJ swag (which does not yet exist, but I’ve been meaning to have some made—and I welcome recommendations for vendors, which you can also put in the comments).
As usual for N&C posts, comments are open to all readers, not just paid subscribers. Thanks!
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There is no way that any of the Trump cases is going to trial before Election Day. I wouldn't be surprised if there's no trial in any of them in 2024, in fact.
Yes on Stanford Law overtaking Yale Law to be #1 without a tie. It could have happened last year, but I bet U.S. News didn't want it to look like it "punished" YLS for leading the boycott.