I agree with your view and Justice Stevens's dissent in Heller. But I think the likelihood of getting the current Supreme Court to revisit Heller is even lower than the likelihood of getting the Second Amendment formally repealed through Article V.
I agree with your view and Justice Stevens's dissent in Heller. But I think the likelihood of getting the current Supreme Court to revisit Heller is even lower than the likelihood of getting the Second Amendment formally repealed through Article V.
I cannot imagine a world where the Second Amendment gets repealed, but I can imagine a world where Heller gets overruled as poorly reasoned and impossible to implement.
A Constitutional Amendment would have to be ratified by 38 states (meaning a refusal by 13 states would block it). I cannot imagine ratification by: 1) West Virginia, 2) Alabama, 3) Mississippi, 4) Tennessee, 5) Kentucky, 6) Louisiana, 7) Arkansas, 8) North Dakota, 9) South Dakota, 10), Oklahoma, 11) Kansas, 12) Nebraska, 13) Wyoming, 14) Montana, 15) Ohio, 16) Indiana or 17) Alaska. It would be hard to see ratification in Texas or Florida, absent major electoral upheaval.
On the other hand, the Supreme Court could overrule Heller, with a flip of just three Justices. If a Democrat were to appoint the replacements for Thomas, Alito and Roberts, there would be a minimum of 5 votes to overrule Heller. This might take a decade or more.
Moreover, there is a non-de minimus chance that the Democrats will expand the number of Supreme Court justices to create a 7-6 liberal majority. That, of course, is contingent on the Democrats expanding their Senate majority sufficient to get the votes (because Manchin and Sinema have said they will not sign on).
I agree with your view and Justice Stevens's dissent in Heller. But I think the likelihood of getting the current Supreme Court to revisit Heller is even lower than the likelihood of getting the Second Amendment formally repealed through Article V.
I cannot imagine a world where the Second Amendment gets repealed, but I can imagine a world where Heller gets overruled as poorly reasoned and impossible to implement.
A Constitutional Amendment would have to be ratified by 38 states (meaning a refusal by 13 states would block it). I cannot imagine ratification by: 1) West Virginia, 2) Alabama, 3) Mississippi, 4) Tennessee, 5) Kentucky, 6) Louisiana, 7) Arkansas, 8) North Dakota, 9) South Dakota, 10), Oklahoma, 11) Kansas, 12) Nebraska, 13) Wyoming, 14) Montana, 15) Ohio, 16) Indiana or 17) Alaska. It would be hard to see ratification in Texas or Florida, absent major electoral upheaval.
On the other hand, the Supreme Court could overrule Heller, with a flip of just three Justices. If a Democrat were to appoint the replacements for Thomas, Alito and Roberts, there would be a minimum of 5 votes to overrule Heller. This might take a decade or more.
Moreover, there is a non-de minimus chance that the Democrats will expand the number of Supreme Court justices to create a 7-6 liberal majority. That, of course, is contingent on the Democrats expanding their Senate majority sufficient to get the votes (because Manchin and Sinema have said they will not sign on).
Fair points. Unfortunately, I'm still not optimistic about Heller getting overruled, at least not anytime in the next decade....
So you're telling me there's a chance.
https://youtu.be/gqdNe8u-Jsg?t=51
Right. Stare decisis applies to Gekler but not to Roe.