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Allan's avatar

The leak does seem consistent with increasing polarization of the electorate as well as congress and other govt institutions. With no remaining overlap in parties, and identity groups, there just seem to be fewer and fewer restraints on confidentiality. Wikileaks, Snowden, escalating leaking during the Trump administration, all seem to have led (though not caused) to this point. The opinion itself suggests we may see more so-called established law cases overturned. Affirmative action, various gun control laws, etc. may all be on the block now that the conservatives appear to have a solid five vote majority that is willing to overturn important precedents. Rather than being an end point, this leak feels like the beginning of some sort of epochal judicial/social movement conflict.

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Ian Mark Sirota's avatar

I predicted six years ago that if The Former Guy was elected, he would place on the Supreme Court justices who would end Roe v. Wade. I was told at the time (and even after) that I was nuts, that I was alarmist or that I was just plain wrong. Well, here we are. If this draft opinion is accurate--and I think that it is, and that it is also very unlikely to change in any substantive way once it is formally released--exactly what I predicted is about to happen. The question now is, are "Blue States" ready? For the most part, I'd say that the answer is NO. "Red States" are studying ways to apply their anti-abortion laws outside their state's borders. Near as I can tell, only Connecticut has passed a law holding that the laws of the anti-abortion states are null and void inside its borders. ALL pro-choice states must do the same. We are already in the post Roe v. Wade era and we'd best prepare for it. Oh, one more negative to think about: The Supreme Court isn't going to be satisfied with this, nor will social conservatives. They'll be coming for Obergefell next.

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